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In yesterday's Democratic primary for congressional district PA-1, I cast my vote for Lucia Simonelli. Bob Harvie won by 2/3 to 1/3, which in my experience is the standard margin an endorsed Democratic candidate enjoys against a competent unendorsed candidate in Bucks County primary elections. I had no illusion going in: Lucia was bound to lose.

Most Bucks County Democratic voters, even those motivated enough to vote in an off-year primary, have done little or no research prior to appearing at the poll. They look at the "goldenrod" (the sample ballot of BCDC-endorsed candidates handed to them by Dem poll greeters) and vote for the names printed on it.

Should primaries work this way? I don't think so. But I don't blame BCDC. All political organizations are purpose-built to maximize their influence over elections. If voters allow them to use internal processes to drive electoral outcomes, they will.

Thus has Bob Harvie become the standard-bearer for Democrats in the general election.

Up to now, Harvie has spent a lot of time talking about Donald Trump. The words sound rehearsed, and designed in response to Trump's dismal polling. Trouble is, Harvie isn't running against Donald Trump, and Democratic polling numbers are dismal as well.

Relentless marketing over the past decade has severed Brian Fitzpatrick's brand from the MAGA movement. As he always does leading up to an election, Fitzpatrick will push back against Trump just enough to remind voters he is their "independent" congressman. Just yesterday, walking briskly and looking defiant, Fitzpatrick made national news as he announced opposition to Trump's fund for victims of DOJ overreach. The timing of that interview was no accident.

My advice to Harvie, unsolicited and probably unwelcome:

Recognize the primary was a coronation. The general will be a dog fight.
Too much focus on Trump is poor marksmanship.
Stand for something. "I'm not MAGA" isn't policy. Don't count on midterm backlash against the party in power—even a party as fecal as the current one.
Create space between you and Fitz. Right now, voters are looking at two conventionally attractive, middle-aged, politically moderate white men. The resting intellectual state of independents and moderate Republicans will steer them toward the Fitz status quo. If you don't upset the apple cart, you will lose.
Study what it means to be a congressperson, and define your role. In the candidate forum, you expressed no desire to serve on any particular committee. Seriously? Articulate your goals. Identify committees aligned with those goals. Tell voters what you want do and how you intend to do it. In other words, do what Lucia Simonelli did in her doomed campaign against you.
Be yourself. Don't let DCCC, PA Dems, or BCDC define you. They will push you into a formulaic mold that will guarantee failure in November. I've been studying you since you got elected as Bucks Commissioner, and I still don't know who your are. I'm guessing that who you are is head-and-shoulders better than who Fitz is. Make sure we all know it.
Speak in plain language. Study Trump's speech patterns. They work. Employ them for good, not evil.

In November, the goldenrod will mean nothing. To pry votes away from Brian Fitzpatrick, Bob Harvie will need to have established an identity as a future congressperson voters like more than they like Fitzpatrick.

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Link: https://halwrightnewtown.info/blog/Who-Would-Congressman-Bob-Harvie-Be-62/

February 23, 2024
Mr. Fitzpatrick Goes To Ukraine
by Hal Wright

In which our performative Congressman attempts to paper over the foreign policy and security disaster created by his party's dysfunction.

After failing to produce any tangible results for our allies and our border security, Rep. Fitzpatrick spent our tax money to obtain a photo-op with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Here's the sordid timeline.

October 24, 2023: Brian Fitzpatrick votes for election denier Mike Johnson, whom he describes as "spiritual and humble," as Speaker of the House.

February 5, 2024: In a demonstration of fealty to Donald Trump, Mike Johnson preemptively kills a Senate bipartisan bill which supported Ukraine, Israel, and southern border security, declaring it dead on arrival in the House.

February 6, 2024: House Republicans fail in an attempt to pass an Israel-only aid bill. Fitzpatrick votes in favor of the bill, throwing Ukraine under the bus.

February 11, 2024: Trump says he’d let Russia do "whatever the hell they want" to NATO countries that don’t pay enough.

February 13, 2024: The Senate passes the bipartisan bill 70-29, prompting President Biden to call for a vote in the House and to condemn Trump for his comments.

February 15, 2024: Congress recesses without approving any aid for Ukraine, Israel, and border security. President Biden asks, "What are they thinking?"

February 15, 2024: Brian Fitzpatrick touts a watered-down House bill to fund Ukraine, Israel, and the southern border, which faces a steep uphill path to becoming law in both the House and Senate.

February 22, 2024: Brian Fitzpatrick spends taxpayer money on a useless junket to Ukraine and Israel.

In the bizarre quantum mechanics of Fitzpatrick's Republican party, the situation at the southern border is both an existential crisis and so unimportant that addressing it can be delayed until after the November election, to prevent President Biden from claiming he did something about it.

Meantime, Ukraine faces a genuine existential crisis as it runs out of ammunition in its fight with Putin's Russia. Republicans shrug (at best) or oppose any support for Ukraine (at worst).

Fitzpatrick has built his political career in no small part by pledging support for Ukraine, Israel, and strong border security. Due to his party's dysfunction, distraction, and fealty to Donald Trump, he has been ineffective at delivering on these promises. A junket abroad will not clear the Republican logjam here at home, nor will Fitzpatrick's long record of supporting the most extreme elements in his party.

The remedy is a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate.