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Harvie's early campaign announcement suggests a confidence in victory not seen among Bucks County Democrats since 2018. And his single issue opening statement, focused solely on kitchen-table economics, banks on Trump-induced economic strain reaching most people's kitchen tables sometime in the next 18 months.

Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie announces run for Congress

The Democratic chair of the Bucks County Commissioners hopes to become the next Congressman in Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Bob Harvie announced his run Thursday.

Bucks County Herald

Harvie is also betting on Fitzpatrick not growing a spine, and voting with the Trump administration even when the wellbeing of Bucks County residents would be harmed. That's a pretty safe bet, given Fitzpatrick's long record of supporting Trump, right up to his present day votes in favor of the Jim Crow-inspired SAVE Act and Trump's deficit-swelling, budget-busting tax cuts for his billionaire friends.

Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick Votes for the SAVE Act, a ‘Dangerous Step Backward for Our Democracy’

This bill will disenfranchise millions of voters, especially rural voters, voters of color, and married women who have chosen to change their last names, as numerous nonpartisan organizations have pointed out. But for Fitzpatrick it just didn’t matter.

Bucks County Beacon

House approves budget framework, kick-starting work on Trump's domestic agenda

House Republicans narrowly adopted a multitrillion-dollar budget framework on Thursday, paving the way for lawmakers to begin work on many of President Trump's top policy priorities. The two Republicans voting against the framework did not include Brian Fitzpatrick.

NPR

As is usually the case for Democratic candidates in Bucks County (and elsewhere), Harvie is an insider pick, who will no doubt win the endorsement of BCDC and, if challenged, win the primary; endorsed candidates enjoy ample support and a spot on the sample ballot handed to those who show up to vote in person.

Fitzpatrick will continue to garner reluctant support from MAGA voters, and from low-information moderate voters with a vague affection for his brother Mike. Any Democratic candidate faces an uphill path to victory.

In my limited personal dealings with Harvie, I have found him to be sincerely middle-of-the-road, and genuinely concerned about his constituents. He's an impressive communicator who takes umbrage when his decision-making is questioned, to a degree no more or less than most pols. Overall, I trust Harvie to represent my interests in Washington.

The last close congressional election in Bucks County occurred in 2018, when Scott Wallace committed millions from his personal fortune to take on Brian Fitzpatrick. Wallace lost because he emphasized his personal dislike for Donald Trump over a commitment to improve the lives of his prospective constituents. In the words of one Bucks County politician, he "never grew as a candidate." Harvie should learn from that blunder, and early indications are that he has.