May 23, 2025
Muted Voter Turnout Doesn't Tell the Tale

The 25.9% voter turnout in Bucks County consists of party faithful. At this stage, more Democratic loyalists than Republican loyalists are energized. It's a long way to November.

In turnout, Democrats eclipsed Republicans 54K to 40K, despite the small Republican edge in voter registration.

While candidates for nonpartisan offices, such as judge and school director, file on both Democratic and Republican ballots, Pennsylvania has closed primaries. Independents cannot vote for party candidates. In light of the closed primary format, and a general lack of voter interest in the state, county, and municipal offices being contested in off-year primaries, these primaries reveal little but the degree of voter engagement among each party's most dedicated voters.

Newtown Democratic Club chair Joel Raab had this to say about the outcome:

Joel is right. It was indeed a good day for Democrats, with indicators (both blunt and subtle) of work left to be done in the run-up to November.

One blunt indicator is low turnout. Unenthused citizens, comprising the bulk of the electorate, remained silent in this election. Polls notwithstanding, uncertainty remains about whether and how these folks will vote in November. And it's no surprise Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans, given that losers in the previous election are motivated while the winners slack off.

A deeper dive into the numbers yields a more subtle concern for Democrats. Note the drop off in votes for District Attorney vs. Sheriff. Despite having taken the time to show up in person or mail in their ballots, and despite the relative importance of the office of District Attorney, thousands opted to vote for no one at all.

The pattern was repeated in Newtown, with 2349 votes for Ceisler vs. 2170 votes for Joe Khan.

In 2023, Democrats pulled off a near clean sweep in Bucks County. Most notably, in response to far-right Moms for Liberty candidates, several school boards long in the hands of Republicans were flipped to Democratic control. Bucks County voters made clear their low tolerance for book bans and for bullying marginalized students and their teachers. Is the 2025 race for Sheriff following a similar pattern, with disgust over ICE tactics prevailing over the general sense that a crackdown on illegal immigration is necessary? If so, Democrats may be able to count on strong turnout in their favor, and should encourage voters to complete the entire ballot.

That being said, outcomes in 2024 bore no resemblance to those in 2023, and much will happen between now and November to change the electoral landscape. Anti-Trump anger and fear is too thin a thread to weave the fabric of a campaign. Democrats need to seize hold of the agenda with their own sound ideas to promote economic and social wellbeing, ideas which resonate with everyday Americans.

~ ~ ~

Primary results distilled for Newtown residents:

Full vote totals are available on the Bucks County government website.

May 15, 2025
Newtown Democratic Candidates, May 2025

Here are candidates for state, county and municipal offices in the 2025 primary election.