HalWrightNewtown.Info
In support of rational and compassionate public policy at all levels of government which affect the residents of Newtown Township and Bucks County
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
~ John Adams
What the FAR LEFT has to say about me and my writing
"You are anti-semitic!"
"You are a Zionist!"
"We don't give single fuck what your privileged ignorant ass has to say."
"Think, you pudding headed fuck."
What the FAR RIGHT has to say about me and my writing
"What an arrogant fool you are."
"YOU are pushing that racist bullshit."
"Dmb fk."
"You're a groomer, and are a danger to society."
I encourage you to explore this site and see what the fuss is about. Apologies in advance if you aren't as excited by measured, evidence-based reasoning as my "fans" in social media.
Of Interest in Newtown
Views from the Commons
Reckoning–Predictions for the General
I was wrong. It was a blue tsunami.

House

I predicted a Democratic majority in the House, 235 to 200. As of this morning, Democrats are in the lead 253 to 157, and Dems are on track to win around 255 races.
Here in Pennsylvania, I predicted Cognetti (PA-08) and Brooks (PA-07) would win, and they did. I underestimated the moral fiber of PA-10 in spite of having visited there days ago; shame on me. Janelle Stelson defeated Scott Perry, and it wasn't close. And in PA-01, Bob Harvie defeated Brian Fitzpatrick by about 5%.
Democrats now hold 11 of Pennsylvania's 17 seats in the House of Representatives.
District Democrat Republican Winner
PA-01Bob HarvieBrian FitzpatrickDemocrat
PA-02Brendan BoyleJessica ArriagaDemocrat
PA-03Chris Rabbno Republican nomineeDemocrat
PA-04Madeleine DeanAurora StuskiDemocrat
PA-05Mary Gay ScanlonNick ManganaroDemocrat
PA-06Chrissy HoulahanMarty YoungDemocrat
PA-07Bob BrooksRyan MackenzieDemocrat
PA-08Paige CognettiRob Bresnahan Jr.Democrat
PA-09Rachel WallaceDan MeuserRepublican
PA-10Janelle StelsonScott PerryDemocrat
PA-11Nancy MannionLloyd SmuckerRepublican
PA-12Summer LeeJames HayesDemocrat
PA-13Beth FarnhamJohn JoyceRepublican
PA-14Alan BradstockGuy ReschenthalerRepublican
PA-15Ray BilgerGlenn ThompsonRepublican
PA-16Justin WagnerMike KellyRepublican
PA-17Chris DeluzioTony GuyDemocrat

Senate

With two races too close to call, in Mississippi and Alaska, Democrats are in the lead 54-44. I predicted 51-49. Democrats won all of the "lean Democrat" races, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine, and James Talerico in Texas.
Wins by Scott Colom in Mississippi and Mary Peltola in Alaska would give Democrats a commanding 56-44 majority in the Senate.

Republican Democrat
Not contested3134
Lean or Safe1317
Lean or Safe wins1217
Mississippi, Cindy Hyde-Smith vs. Scott Colom (Safe R)✔️
leading
Alaska, Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola
✔️leading
Iowa, Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek
✔️win
Nebraska, Pete Ricketts vs. Dan Osborn (I)✔️win
Ohio, Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
✔️win
South Carolina, Darline Graham Nordone vs. Annie Andrews✔️
win
Won so far4454
✔️ = my prediction

Governors

Thus far, 28 Democrats have won their races for governor. Both Alaska and Kansas have not been called, but as of now the Democrat leads.

Republican Democrat
Not contested86
Lean or Safe1119
Lean or Safe wins1118
Alaska, Bernadette Wilson vs. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Safe D)
✔️ leads
Georgia, Rick Jackson vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms
✔️ win
Kansas, Ty Masterson vs. Cindy Holscher✔️leads
Nevada, Joe Lombardo vs. Aaron Ford✔️win
Oregon, Christine Drazan vs. Tina Kotek
✔️ win
Texas, Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa✔️win
Vermont, Phil Scott vs. Amanda Janoo✔️ win
Predicted2327
Won so far2028

State Houses

I didn't address state Senate and House races at all in my predictions. It's worth noting that Democrats now control state houses in at least 23 states. The Pennsylvania Senate flipped to Democratic control for the first time in 48 years, freeing State government to pursue items long on Democrats' wish list, such as a $15 minimum wage, legalized recreational marijuana, and abortion rights codified in the State constitution.
More views
Harvie for PA-01
I had some concerns at the outset. But Bob Harvie has grown as a candidate. His platform sits squarely within mainstream Democratic values and right on top of this cycle's voter concerns.
Predictions for the General
I'm predicting a wave, not a tsunami, which will result in Democratic control of the House and slim control of the Senate.
Drawing the Line: Who Counts as a Person?
A look at rights, immigration, money and wellbeing through the lens of the oldest fight in American life.
More Republicans Find their Voice
When Karl Rove and I stand on common ground, the ground under all of our feet may have shifted.
An Infant Dies in Lancaster County
The controversy over the death of a newborn in Lancaster County has revealed the extent to which our politics and our public health are broken.

Check out the full blog:

Fact: Climate change is real. Promoting clean energy is an urgent matter of national security.
Fact: Transgender persons exist, and cannot be legislated out of existence.
Fact: Students need a factual account of our history, including slavery and its residual effects on the rights and freedoms of all Americans.