In support of rational and compassionate public policy at all levels of government which affect the residents of Newtown Township and Bucks County
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” ~ John Adams
What the FAR LEFT has to say about me and my writing
"You are anti-semitic!"
"You are a Zionist!"
"We don't give single fuck what your privileged ignorant ass has to say."
"Think, you pudding headed fuck."
What the FAR RIGHT has to say about me and my writing
"What an arrogant fool you are."
"YOU are pushing that racist bullshit."
"Dmb fk."
"You're a groomer, and are a danger to society."
I encourage you to explore this site and see what the fuss is about. Apologies in advance if you aren't as excited by measured, evidence-based reasoning as my "fans" in social media.
I'm predicting a wave, not a tsunami, which will result in Democratic control of the House and slim control of the Senate.
House
Democrats will likely have a majority of at least 230 seats to 205. In an aggregation of polls, they start with 225 seats, counting just safe and lean races. There are 29 close races, and they need to win only five of these to get to 230 seats. Even winning 1/3 of the close races gets them to 235. I don't think they'll do better than that; polls have skewed Democrat in recent elections. Low-information non-MAGA Republicans always come out on election day to support their candidates. It's a belonger culture.
Republican
Democrat
Not contested
0
0
Lean or Safe
181
225
Close
19
10
Totals
200
235
In PA races, I have Fitzpatrick edging out Harvie by 1–2% in PA-01, Scott Perry beating Janelle Stelson by perhaps 2% in PA-10, and Brooks (PA-07) and Cognetti (PA-08) winning narrow victories. I'll be delighted if proven wrong about Bob Harvie.
District
Democrat
Republican
Classification
PA-01
Bob Harvie
Brian Fitzpatrick
Close
PA-10
Janelle Stelson
Scott Perry
Close
PA-07
Bob Brooks
Ryan Mackenzie
Lean Democrat
PA-08
Paige Cognetti
Rob Bresnahan Jr.
Lean Democrat
PA-02
Brendan Boyle
Jessica Arriaga
Safe Democrat
PA-03
Chris Rabb
no challenger
Safe Democrat
PA-04
Madeleine Dean
Aurora Stuski
Safe Democrat
PA-05
Mary Gay Scanlon
Nick Manganaro
Safe Democrat
PA-06
Chrissy Houlahan
Marty Young
Safe Democrat
PA-12
Summer Lee
James Hayes
Safe Democrat
PA-17
Chris Deluzio
Tony Guy
Safe Democrat
PA-09
Rachel Wallace
Dan Meuser
Safe Republican
PA-11
Nancy Mannion
Lloyd Smucker
Safe Republican
PA-13
Beth Farnham
John Joyce
Safe Republican
PA-14
Alan Bradstock
Guy Reschenthaler
Safe Republican
PA-15
Ray Bilger
Glenn Thompson
Safe Republican
PA-16
Justin Wagner
Mike Kelly
Safe Republican
Senate
After a close look at the polls, it's not as bold as I would have thought to assert that Dems will take the Senate, though the next most likely outcome in my view is a 50-50 deadlock, with Vance as the tiebreaker. For me, the whole thing hinges on Iowa, and I'm feeling those farmers may be sick enough of high-priced diesel to take it out on MAGA Ashley Hinson.
Republican
Democrat
Not contested
31
34
Lean or Safe
16
14
Alaska, Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola
✔️
Iowa, Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek
✔️
Nebraska, Pete Ricketts vs. Dan Osborn (I)
✔️
Ohio, Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
✔️
South Carolina, Darline Graham Nordone vs. Annie Andrews
✔️
Totals
49
51
Governors
An overlooked, likely bright spot for Dems will be control of at least 27 governors' mansions.
Republican
Democrat
Not contested
8
6
Lean or Safe
11
19
Georgia, Rick Jackson vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms
✔️
Kansas, Ty Masterson vs. Cindy Holscher
✔️
Nevada, Joe Lombardo vs. Aaron Ford
✔️
Oregon, Christine Drazan vs. Tina Kotek
✔️
Texas, Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa
✔️
Vermont, Phil Scott vs. Amanda Janoo
✔️
Totals
23
27
Methodology
I used Claude Opus 5.5 to aggregate polling data and calls of races, from centrist sources where possible, then infused my own predictions into the mix. Claude cautioned that authoritative polling data was lacking in many House races, with available data possibly skewed by Democrat-friendly sources.
In the past few weeks, I have visited Districts PA-07, PA-08, and PA-10, and hung around long enough to take a pulse. It's mostly informed guesswork. We'll see what happens.
The controversy over the death of a newborn in Lancaster County has revealed the extent to which our politics and our public health are broken.
Check out the full blog:
Fact: Climate change is real. Promoting clean energy is an urgent matter of national security.
Fact: Transgender persons exist, and cannot be legislated out of existence.
Fact: Students need a factual account of our history, including slavery and its residual effects on the rights and freedoms of all Americans.
Me Imperturbe
Me imperturbe, standing at ease in Nature, Master of all, or mistress of all—aplomb in the midst of irrational things, Imbued as they—passive, receptive, silent as they, Finding my occupation, poverty, notoriety, foibles, crimes, less important than I thought;
Me private, or public, or menial, or solitary—all these subordinate, (I am eternally equal with the best—I am not subordinate;) Me toward the Mexican Sea, or in the Mannahatta, or the Tennessee, or far north, or inland, A river-man, or a man of the woods, or of any farm-life of These States, or of the coast, or the lakes, or Kanada,
Me, wherever my life is lived, O to be self-balanced for contingencies!
O to confront night, storms, hunger, ridicule, accidents, rebuffs, as the trees and animals do.
~ Walt Whitman
Tired
I am so tired of waiting, Aren’t you, For the world to become good And beautiful and kind? Let us take a knife And cut the world in two – And see what worms are eating At the rind.
