Hardened Bigotry and Fading Hope

As Israelis and Gazans fall in line with their violent and incompetent leaders, a framework which could yield lasting peace becomes impossible to imagine, yet alone build.

I haven't blogged about Gaza since my broad characterization of the politics of the war a few months ago. The reason is simple. When something is falling, the next noteworthy event is when it crashes to the ground.

The horror in Gaza has worsened by an order of magnitude or more without tangible change to the fundamentals. Hamas and Netanyahu are doing what they promised, without regard for their standing in the world. Both have grown more popular within their own populations, as they have expanded, in word and deed, their dehumanization of the humans on the other side. And as Gazan civilians starve or are blown to bits, genocide moves closer to an apt description of the reality on the ground. Apologists on both sides make arguments hobbled by outright lies, and by glaring omissions: either that 10/7 happened (on the Hamas side) or that the Nakba happened (on the Israeli side). By not articulating a post-war plan for Gaza, Netanyahu has signaled his intention to turn Gaza into an open-air prison, deprived of resources and isolated as never before, for anyone who survives his onslaught.

Rafah is about to become the white hot center of Gaza. Barring an unlikely change in the momentum of the conflict, Netanyahu will set in motion one of the worst humanitarian disasters in history. By the numbers, Rafah already has the same population as Philadelphia, 1.5 million, crammed into 1/6 of the area, and with a small fraction of Philadelphia's life-sustaining resources. An invasion would result in mass civilian casualties and obliteration of those resources.

There is an element of desperation in Netanyahu's latest public statements and actions. Despite having predicted that the war in Gaza would extend for many months, perhaps into 2025, Netanyahu now claims total victory will be achieved within a few weeks of his invasion of Rafah. There is no longer much talk about bringing the hostages home, and no plan to do so. Thumbing his nose at international pressure and especially at the Biden administration, Netanyahu has continued to expand West Bank settlements. While his defiant posture is not sustainable for the long term, Netanyahu seems more interested in extending his time in power for the short term.

The details of the impending crash in Gaza, and the broad scatter of debris from that crash into the Middle East and elsewhere, remain to be seen. What seems certain, and it's horrible to contemplate, is that the body count of the crash will dwarf that we have experienced so far. Demolishing Gaza may prevent Hamas terrorists from using their tunnels to invade Israel from the west. But as we have seen this week in Russia, nowhere in the world is safe from terrorism, and Israel's enemies must be doubly motivated to continue the emerging cycle of vengeance.