Views from the Commons

As outlined by the New York Times, the drop in support for Democrats by young men is all too real, and the gap has only widened since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the top of the ticket. With Biden, Gen Z men favored Trump by 11 points; the number has increased modestly, to 13 points, under Harris. Meantime, young women's support for the Democratic ticket surged. They favored Biden by 28 points, and now favor Harris by 38 points. If polls were predicting a solid Democratic victory, the Dems' number gurus would say strong support from young women eclipses loss of support from young men and leave things there. But margins in this race are razor-thin. Any loss of support in key demographic groups represents a problem. (And, of course, an opportunity.) So it's worth asking why so many young men are turned off by the Democratic message.

For me, a Democrat who has spent a lifetime consuming political messages and who until recently taught high school, the reasons are obvious. For many young men, our educational systems, mental health support systems, even our economy, are not working particularly well.

Girls graduate high school at a higher rate than boys, about 88% to 82%.
Women with a high school diploma outnumber men in college attendance, 65.3% to 57.6%, and they graduate at a higher rate, 67.9% to 61.3%.
Although women attempt suicide at higher rates than men, men are much more likely to die by suicide, and the rate is rising the fastest among young men.
Women are more likely than men to experiment with and to escalate their use of fentanyl. Nonetheless, men in the US die of drug overdose at rates 2-3 times that of women.
Except in progressive bubbles, the cultural expectation that men will support women and families has not gone away. While the pay gap between men and women has not disappeared overall—and that's a big deal indeed—the present-day economy offers few jobs young men can fill which pay enough to support a relationship or a family. In some markets and regions, women are now out-earning men.

As Republican overtures to young men focus on re-establishing male dominance of an objectively toxic nature, Democrats rarely mention men in any context other than to highlight their toxicity. Young men can be excused for thinking Democrats struggle to differentiate toxic masculinity from masculinity in general, and that the flawed attention paid to them by Republicans is better than no attention at all.

Young female candidates tend to focus on abortion rights and other female issues, while making no appeal to young men. These candidates are beyond brave for taking a stand and running into a gale of Republican sexist degradation. That being said, they are politicians, and winning politicians run on more than personal passion and bravery. They make a compelling case to all persuadable voters that their choices will help those voters.

(Even in my boomer demographic, the Democratic rhetoric grows tiresome. There is a constant drumbeat that men continue to enjoy privilege at levels women were fighting against in the 1970s. As we have seen, the numbers don't support that premise.)

Left-leaning press outlets have used the right's reactionary, misogynistic, and frankly dumb appeals to men in crisis to make the equally dumb case that there is no crisis.

The New York Times makes clear that the many young men who support Trump do not fit the MAGA profile.

In interviews with young men planning to vote for Mr. Trump, they described feeling unvalued. They said it had become harder to be a man. They valued strength in a president. Yet they didn’t express bitter misogyny or praise the exaggerated displays of brawn embraced by the Trump campaign. Their concerns were mostly economic, like whether they could fulfill the traditionally masculine role of supporting a family.

Given that young men's political leanings are more practical than ideological, Democrats have a chance to bring them back into the fold. Writing on the progressive website The American Prospect, Paul Starr provides detail on Republicans' appeal to young men and possible Democratic approaches to stop the bleeding. Perhaps sensing an opportunity, the Harris presidential campaign has emphasized economic prosperity in its advertising, at least indirectly addressing the concerns of young men. And Harris picked Tim Walz as her VP candidate. Says Starr: "As a football coach, teacher, and officer in the National Guard, [Walz] has had long experience in working with young men. He could take up the challenge of engaging Republicans directly on what a worthy life is for men today."

I think Walz could pitch Democratic solutions to young men without costing Democrats a single young woman's vote. Since the DNC, Walz has not been front-and-center in the Harris campaign nearly enough. Nor, more generally, has the Democratic party spoken directly enough and often enough to young men. It's a shame, because young men stand to gain from Democrats' emphasis on union labor, education, mental and physical health, and lower taxes on the middle class. It's not too late, but time is running out.