March 25, 2024
Hardened Bigotry and Fading Hope
by Hal Wright

As Israelis and Gazans fall in line with their violent and incompetent leaders, a framework which could yield lasting peace becomes impossible to imagine, yet alone build.

I haven't blogged about Gaza since my broad characterization of the politics of the war a few months ago. The reason is simple. When something is falling, the next noteworthy event is when it crashes to the ground.

The horror in Gaza has worsened by an order of magnitude or more without tangible change to the fundamentals. Hamas and Netanyahu are doing what they promised, without regard for their standing in the world. Both have grown more popular within their own populations, as they have expanded, in word and deed, their dehumanization of the humans on the other side. And as Gazan civilians starve or are blown to bits, genocide moves closer to an apt description of the reality on the ground. Apologists on both sides make arguments hobbled by outright lies, and by glaring omissions: either that 10/7 happened (on the Hamas side) or that the Nakba happened (on the Israeli side). By not articulating a post-war plan for Gaza, Netanyahu has signaled his intention to turn Gaza into an open-air prison, deprived of resources and isolated as never before, for anyone who survives his onslaught.

Rafah is about to become the white hot center of Gaza. Barring an unlikely change in the momentum of the conflict, Netanyahu will set in motion one of the worst humanitarian disasters in history. By the numbers, Rafah already has the same population as Philadelphia, 1.5 million, crammed into 1/6 of the area, and with a small fraction of Philadelphia's life-sustaining resources. An invasion would result in mass civilian casualties and obliteration of those resources.

There is an element of desperation in Netanyahu's latest public statements and actions. Despite having predicted that the war in Gaza would extend for many months, perhaps into 2025, Netanyahu now claims total victory will be achieved within a few weeks of his invasion of Rafah. There is no longer much talk about bringing the hostages home, and no plan to do so. Thumbing his nose at international pressure and especially at the Biden administration, Netanyahu has continued to expand West Bank settlements. While his defiant posture is not sustainable for the long term, Netanyahu seems more interested in extending his time in power for the short term.

The details of the impending crash in Gaza, and the broad scatter of debris from that crash into the Middle East and elsewhere, remain to be seen. What seems certain, and it's horrible to contemplate, is that the body count of the crash will dwarf that we have experienced so far. Demolishing Gaza may prevent Hamas terrorists from using their tunnels to invade Israel from the west. But as we have seen this week in Russia, nowhere in the world is safe from terrorism, and Israel's enemies must be doubly motivated to continue the emerging cycle of vengeance.

Link: https://halwrightnewtown.info/blog/Hardened-Bigotry-and-Fading-Hope-31/

March 12, 2024
The Danger of Turning Katie Britt into a Punchline
by Hal Wright

Once again a new, highly successful right-wing politician is speaking a language only those on the right understand. And once again those on the left have fallen into the trap of holding this person up for public ridicule. It's the "basket of deplorables" 2.0.

Eight years ago, as the country got to know Donald Trump the candidate, Democrats were by turns disgusted, appalled, amused, and confused: how could he be vanquishing one serious Republican challenger after another? The spectacle seemed surreal to all but a few observers, most notably Michael Moore, who sounded a DEFCON 1 alert almost everyone ignored. "Wow, there's the bubble right there," said Moore, referring to insular, clueless left-wing pols and liberal media figures, who did not recognize Trump's appeal to the heartland until it was too late.

In Moore's view, the violent divisiveness of the last seven years sprang out of the decades-long failure of two American demographics to understand each other, mostly because they rarely experienced each other. Residents of large cities and their suburbs came to regard those in less populated regions of the country as regressive and irrelevant, while to those rural and small-town Americans, large cities were distant, dirty, lawless places dragging America downward into sin and bankruptcy.

In 2024, it's the same, but worse. Trump and his sycophants continue to whip up fear and resentment within their base, while Democrats reactively offer refuge to theirs. Both sides claw at an increasingly concerned independent middle underwhelmed by what they see in every direction they look.

Into this maelstrom dropped Senator Katie Britt (R-AL), broadcasting from her kitchen, speaking in a childlike whisper about Democrats bringing an end to civilization in the United States. The left greeted her as they had greeted Trump in 2016, with derision, mockery and a satirical turn on SNL. And a new albeit faint alarm could be heard, this time in the form of an article by Jess Piper, a former English teacher and "Dirt Road Democrat" candidate from Missouri:

Piper's detailed account of what's really going on here is necessary reading in its entirety.

Updates:

Jess Piper has created a video on social media to accompany her article.

A comparison of Katie Britt's actual voice vs. that in the SOTU response. Note that she lies about the southern border in all cadences and intonations. Biden motivated the bipartisan negotiations which led to a border bill which passed the Senate; he is still trying to get Congress to pass it. The horrible incident of sex trafficking Britt described last Thursday occurred in Mexico during the George W. Bush administration, and did not involve someone seeking to cross into the United States.

To millions of American women and their husbands, there was nothing fringe or bizarre about the setting of Britt's speech, nor about her manner of speaking. She was making a targeted plea. You may not like Donald Trump. But he and his fellow Republicans will protect the cultural order to which you are accustomed against a mean-spirited liberal mob, which cannot resist ridiculing what you are.

While an abundant number of evangelicals may be counted among Trump's supporters, not all evangelicals are reflexive Trump voters. And millions more non-evangelical American women believe in the primacy of their role as mother, and fear an influx of "the other," those different from them, into their communities.

In an election with razor-thin margins, Democrats can scarcely afford to lose support from any voting bloc, nor to further energize the opposition. The left may someday learn to reign in its own smugness so as not to alienate significant chunks of the American public. Alas, today is not that day.

Link: https://halwrightnewtown.info/blog/The-Danger-of-Turning-Katie-Britt-into-a-Punchline-36/

February 29, 2024
Fitzpatrick's Lie about the Border and Fentanyl
by Hal Wright

It's counterintuitive but true: Securing the southern border won't affect the flow of fentanyl into the US. Brian Fitzpatrick must know this. So why does he keep claiming it will?

In his press release of February 6, Brian Fitzpatrick had this to say about fentanyl and the southern border: "The price of inaction is just too high, as fentanyl continues to flow across the border killing our fellow Americans and cartels exploit the porous border for criminal activity." Fitzpatrick amplified this claim in the media last weekend.

Trouble is, the claim is false. Fitzpatrick has access to the same government data as we, and must know he is lying.

Let's look at a 2022 evidence-based investigation by the Cato Institute (hardly a bastion of progressivism). They concluded that "just 0.02 percent of the people arrested by Border Patrol for crossing illegally possessed any fentanyl whatsoever." Where fentanyl is concerned, we have met the enemy, and they are us. US citizens are 99% of fentanyl consumers and 86% minimum (likely as much as 97%) of fentanyl traffickers.

Almost all of the fentanyl flowing into the US crosses the border at legal points of entry. Why? Those entering the country legally face less scrutiny and a will almost certainly successfully cross the border. It's Economics of Smuggling 101.

Further, as the Cato Institute says, "aggressive drug interdiction exacerbates fentanyl smuggling." Fentanyl is 50 times more potent than heroin, so smuggling one pound of fentanyl into the US is the equivalent of smuggling 50 pounds of heroin. The Cato Institute refers to the "iron law of prohibition," in which enhanced enforcement incentivizes smuggling of the most potent form of the contraband.

Like Donald Trump, the presidential candidate he voted for in 2020, Rep. Fitzpatrick lies as easily as he breathes. Granted, Trump's lies about the border are more extravagant. In at least one respect though, Fitzpatrick's lies are worse than Trump's, because unlike Trump, Fitzpatrick has crafted an "aw shucks," Boy Scout-like persona which motivates Democrat-leaning voters to split the ticket and vote (against their own interests) for him.

Fitzpatrick's lie about fentanyl is especially heinous, because it feeds into the xenophobia and bigotry which are Trump's stock in trade. The Cato Institute says this about people who blame immigrants for the fentanyl crisis: "Instead of attacking immigrants, policymakers should focus on effective solutions that help people at risk of a fentanyl overdose." I agree. The fentanyl crisis will be solved only by working the demand side of the opioid economy.

Why does our so-called moderate congressman engage in stealth support for extreme right-wing politics and politicians, again and again? Who knows? We the people of PA-01 can render such questions moot by voting Fitzpatrick out of office in November and initiating the next phase of Fitzpatrick's professional career, in which he will be someone else's problem.

Link: https://halwrightnewtown.info/blog/Fitzpatricks-Lie-about-the-Border-and-Fentanyl-34/